Archive for the ‘Immunization’ category

COVID VACCINE CHALLENGE

September 23rd, 2020

COVID vaccine challenge
NICK JACOBS
Published Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:48 PM EDT

Besides wearing a mask, which we’ve known since 77AD protects us from the plague, the other best opportunity for stopping the progress of COVID-19 is through the discovery of an effective vaccine.

Rather than getting COVID via the natural infection pathway, a vaccine could produce herd immunity without harming or potentially killing people.

Thousands of Americans seem to have chosen the risk-it-all route as they go without masks, and attend large, unprotected social events and rallies.

Unfortunately, not unlike playing Russian Roulette with your loved ones and friends, this route is filled with potential suffering and an almost complete lack of predictability.

In an article in Time magazine, Alice Parks recounts how it was Edward Jenner who, in 1790, discovered that infecting people with small amounts of smallpox virus could produce immunity. Today, there are more than 100 vaccines being developed in an attempt to provide us with immunity from SARS COVID-19, and across the world, billions of dollars are being pumped into this effort.

There are numerous challenges to be faced in this effort including those of manufacturing and then distributing the vaccine in a humanitarian manner.

The good news is, regardless of political pressure, the major vaccine makers have already pledged to conduct complete safety studies before submitting their vaccines to international regulators. The not-so-good news is HIV/AIDS has been around for nearly 40 years and an effective vaccine is still not available.

Approximately 132,000,000 people in the United States are living with pre-existing health conditions. Thus, the challenge becomes who gets a vaccine and when. These decisions may literally produce a life and death lottery game.

The Time article cited researchers from CUNY’s School of Public Health’s computer simulation that calculated if 75 percent of the world’s population were immunized, to control the ongoing pandemic, vaccines would need to be about 70 percent effective. Any of us who are regular recipients of the annual flu vaccine know that some years it’s effective and some years it’s not.

Consequently, we will be faced with arguments over the world’s current state of nationalism combined with America’s anti-vaccination movement. Plus we still have the challenges of discovery, manufacturing and actual implementation.

Oh, and there’s one more speed bump in that the United States has chosen not to join the other 172 countries of the world in the COVAX initiative on international unity for epidemic preparedness innovations originated by the World Health Organization.

If we prioritize our high-risk populations which include health care employees, first-responders, people with pre-existing conditions, and the elderly living in group environments, and then add critical workers such as teachers, food growers and service providers, people in group homes and the incarcerated, we finally end up getting the vaccines to our most precious hope for the future, young adults and children.

In short, none of this is going to be easy. One batch of improperly manufactured polio vaccine in the 1950s resulted in thousands of children being accidentally infected with polio. and because there are so many variations of vaccines being developed, there is also the risk of triggering excessive immune responses that could end up being more harmful than helpful.

Finally, and this is one more example of the broken public health system in this country, any plans for massive immunizations will be dependent upon public-health initiatives that are appropriately supported and resourced.

Keep in mind many of our states have been seeking leadership, supplies, direction, and funding from the federal government since March. At about $35 per dose and in most cases the vaccines require two doses, herd immunity is not likely to be achieved either quickly or in a cost-effective manner.

One thing is clear, however. An effective plan needs to be implemented to stop this out of control COVID transmission and to produce a clear pathway to normalcy. We need to get back to normal through a national strategy.

 

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A Different Kind of Saturday Night Fever for Some

April 25th, 2009

In August 2006, I was inspired to write a disconcerting blog post regarding the potential outbreak of the avian flu.  It was a disturbing post not only because it contained potentially negative statistical mortality outcomes on an international basis, but also because, as a relative insider, it was clear to me that we were not ready at all for this type of pandemic.

Churchgoers in Mexico City | Photo Credit: AP

Churchgoers in Mexico City Sunday | Photo Credit: AP

With new grandbaby Zoey safely here on earth less than a week ago as the youngest member of the family,  today’s opening story of a potential influenza pandemic made my blood run cold.  The rate and speed with which this type of pandemic could overtake our world is almost immeasurable, and, having flown from San Francisco, to San Diego, to Richmond to Pittsburgh in the last week, it was clear that,  if I had been a carrier, literally hundreds of people could have been infected simply by my presence.

Those who are realists or pragmatists will simply say, it is Mother Nature’s way of “thinning the herd,” but herd thinning in our case is something that is uncomfortable, especially in such a random way.  During the pandemic of 1917/1918, mass graves were dug not ten miles from my home, and undertakers were not even permitted to prepare the bodies for burial.

My previous blog focused on the avian virus, but this morphed virus that appeared in Mexico, not China, not the Far East as originally predicted, is a combination of human, swine, and avian viruses.  No one has ever seen or found cures for this type of radical new flu yet.


View H1N1 Swine Flu in a larger map

The World Health Organization came out today with only a level three warning, but when they described this level of warning, they indicated that it was simply because they did not yet have enough information to take it to level six.  There are confirmed cases in San Antonio, San Diego, and one report even indicated that New York had two cases, and over 68 are known dead in Mexico.  Fever, sore throat, coughing, nausea, body aches, headaches, chills and fever are some of the symptoms presenting with this flu that can result in pneumonia and respiratory failure.

Mexico City closed it schools on Friday, and more such initiatives are expected as this powerful force of nature begins to take on a life of its own.

How can you avoid getting this flu?  Wash your hands, stay away from infected people, cover your nose and mouth.

In children, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

  • Fast breathing or trouble breathing
  • Bluish skin color
  • Not drinking enough fluids
  • Not waking up or not interacting
  • Being so irritable that the child does not want to be held
  • Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough
  • Fever with a rash

In adults, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
  • Sudden dizziness
  • Confusion
  • Severe or persistent vomiting

Let’s all hope that this never gets any worse than it did in the 1976/77 cycle when only a very few people died at that time…mortality rate was low with swine, but this is swine, avian and  human combination.

Tonight, say a little prayer.

Also by Nick Jacobs:

Are We Ready for the Avian Flu?
Hospital Impact
August 8th, 2006

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